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| Appendix A |
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A6 SHOPPING FLOORSPACE CALCULATIONS |
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A. Projected U.K Annual Average Per Capita Consumer Retail Expenditure (£s) |
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(derived from URPI Information Brief 94/2) |
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Convenience |
Durable |
All Goods |
Trend |
81-92 |
76-92 |
63-92 |
81-92 |
76-92 |
63-92 |
81-92 |
76-92 |
63-92 |
1992 Base |
1034 |
1024 |
1018 |
1366 |
1333 |
1274 |
2388 |
2342 |
2260 |
2006 Projection |
1140 |
1092 |
1071 |
2663 |
2396 |
2078 |
3516 |
3227 |
2893 |
1992-2006 Factor |
1.102 |
1.066 |
1.052 |
1.949 |
1.797 |
1.631 |
1.472
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1.378
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1.280
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B. Base City Floorspace (m2) 1992 |
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(Source: Strategic Guidance Monitoring 5th Update: aggregate of main, secondary and other centres, along with out of centre floorspace.) |
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Convenience |
Durable |
All Goods |
68,435m² |
137,272m² |
205,707m² |
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C. City Population |
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1992297,100 (OPCS mid year estimate) |
2006299,500 (UDP Strategy) |
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Change Factor 1.0081
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D. Projected Floorspace Change derived from above (all goods) |
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81-92 Trend |
76-92 Trend |
63-92 Trend |
Factor determining change (changes in expenditure population changes (A x C)) |
1.4839 |
1.3892 |
1.2904 |
Resulting potential floorspace requirement 2006 (sq. m.) |
305,249 |
285,768 |
265,444 |
1992 floorspace (sq. m.) |
68,435 |
137,272 |
205,707 |
Potential additional floorspace required by 2006 (sq. m.) |
+99,542 |
+80,061 |
+59,737 |
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NB As indicated by URPI in the Information Brief, the 1981-1992 trend is dominated by the high growth of the 1980’s and produces 1992 projections in excess of actual 1992 expenditure; as a result URPI did not consider it could be used for realistic future planning. Consequently the 1963-1992 trend (which gives the ‘best fit’) and the 1976-1992 trend (which should be treated with caution) have been used to provide the basis for future floorspace requirements within the City. |
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