The UDP is not only concerned with the land and environmental needs but also the aspirations of the City's present and future residents.  The size and broad distribution of population therefore can, to an extent, be determined by the Plan's policies, which must seek to balance conservation of the environment with the needs of economic development and housing. 

Strategic Guidance states that UDP policies should have regard to present projections of population (extrapolated from past trends), but should balance this by a realistic assessment of the success of policies in arresting decline.  Government guidance however states that authorities may wish to consider the relationship of planning policies and proposals to their social needs and problems, including their likely impact on different groups in the population.  This chapter therefore looks at the main aspects of the City's past, present and future population.  More detailed background figures on certain aspects are included in the Appendix.

On Census night 1991 the resident population of the City numbered 289,040 persons.  Table 2.1 presents two sets of population figures for the City derived from the Census of Population and the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) 'mid-year' estimate.  It is considered that the mid-year estimate of population is generally the most applicable basis for planning purposes in that it takes account of the total call on the services provided by the Council.  This differs from the Census based population figure as it takes into account adjustments arising from:-

• An under count in the 1991 Census - as indicated in post-Census surveys;
• Adjustments to include certain groups e.g. students are included as resident at their term time address rather than at their parental home.

The 'mid-year' estimate for 1991 therefore shows that the overall resident population of the City stood at 296,400, less than 1000 below the equivalent 1981 population.  The most recent estimate (1993) indicates that there has been an increase in the City's population to 297,800 persons.

Source: OPCS (1991)

Changes in the population structure have implications for the provision of facilities and services - for instance the provision of new schools, recreational facilities or services for the elderly.  The situation in the City at 1991 for various age groups showed that all groups up to retirement age had a greater representation than both the Tyne and Wear and national situation, whilst the retirement-age group was lower.  Of the five Tyne and Wear Districts, Sunderland's relatively young age structure is unique.

• Pre-school age children (0-4) made up about 7% of the City's population.  This group has grown slightly since 1981.
• The number of school age children (5-15) has declined by one-sixth since 1981, now representing almost 15% of the total population - a larger proportion, however, than any of the other local districts.
• The working population of the City, i.e. those in the 16 to OAP group, has grown moderately since 1981, to just over 61% of the total population.
• There has however, been quite substantial growth in the City's elderly population (over pensionable age).  Over the period it increased by almost 7% to represent about 17%of the City's population.

Source: OPCS Mid-year Estimates

The needs of ethnic minority groups and households in some UK towns and cities can have a significant impact on local authority services and, to an extent, on future land use planning.  The 1991 Census revealed that just over 1% of the City's population originated from outside the United Kingdom, numbering some 3,217, mainly India, Bangladesh and China.

The numbers of full and part-time students attending courses at the University has been growing steadily over recent years and in 1995 stood at some 15,600.  This trend is expected to continue throughout the Plan period; numbers rising by a third to stand at about 20,000 by 2004/5.

Source: T&WRIU Ward Estimates 1994

The City's population would naturally grow but for the effects of migration, which reduces the numbers of economically active as well as those of child bearing age.  Sunderland's growth has for many years been dampened by substantial net out-migration (being the difference between the number of people moving into and out of the area).  In the 1980's this averaged about 800 persons per year, the net effect being the result of a dynamic movement in the order of 6-7,000 persons per annum both into and out of the City.  In the main this was due to movement of the 16-24 and 25-44 age groups, those principally concerned with setting up household and employment moves.

Local migration involves short distance moves between the City and the adjacent Districts of Tyne and Wear and the County of Durham.  Although assumed to be mainly for housing purposes, education and environmental factors could play a part.  Net out-migration increased in the early 1980's, the trend reversing after 1987, possibly as a result of increasing house construction helping satisfy demand.  Since 1991 local out-migration (i.e. to South Tyneside and County Durham) has been steadily decreasing.

Fig. 2.1 Net migration 1980-1997

Source: NHSCR 1980-1997 (mid year)

The economic structure of the population and relative levels of affluence and deprivation affect the City in two ways:-

• The skills of its workforce can determine the type and level of employment which can be attracted; the level of employment consequently has an effect on the level of retail and other services which develop.
• The amount and types of deprivation will affect the levels of provision of services required from the Local Authority, Central Government and others.

Between 1981 and 1991 there was an increase in the proportion of residents in managerial and technical occupations from 14% to 19%.  Nationally, the change over the period was from 21% to 26%.  The proportion of the City's qualified workforce (i.e. those possessing a degree, professional or vocational qualification) nearly doubled over this period.

At the same time the proportion of skilled manual workers in the City reduced from 30% to 23%, primarily as a result of job losses associated with the closure of the City's shipyards and collieries - the fall at national level was from 25% to 21%.

Links have also been demonstrated between health and indicators of poverty, such as not having a car, having a lower level of educational achievement, being unemployed, living in overcrowded conditions, belonging to an ethnic minority and being a lone pensioner or single parent.  Several health and economic factors considered together can be used to indicate relative deprivation.  The individual health factors show Sunderland to be demonstrably poorer than the national and County picture.  On economic factors, the City fares worse than the national average, but is similar to the County situation.

The overall level of deprivation within Sunderland, as measured by the DoE's recently published figures, placed the City in 33rd worst position among 366 English Districts.  'High' adverse scores were registered on the economic, social, health, educational and environmental indicators, but were offset to some extent by 'low' scores on the three housing indicators.  The extent to which the latter influenced the City's overall final position is illustrated by the fact that, in their absence, Sunderland would have ranked as the fifth most deprived English District.

The City continues to have a significantly higher proportion of households without a car than the national average; 49% compared with 33%, though this could be lower due to the high incidence of public transport available.

When the Census years 1981 and 1991 are compared, an overall worsening in deprivation in the City is evident with 13 of the 25 electoral wards  falling in their regional deprivation ranking.  The areas exhibiting the highest relative levels of deprivation are the large council estates to the north and west of the Sunderland urban area.  The same six wards were ranked in the ten percent most deprived in the region in 1981 as in 1991 - Castletown, Grindon, South Hylton, Southwick, Thorney Close and Town End Farm.  In the decade since the 1981 Census, Silksworth and St. Chad's have shown the most improvement, primarily due to decreases in unemployment.

In 1981 the least deprived ward was Fulwell followed by St. Michael's.  This continued to be the case in 1991, however, both wards have fallen in the regional ranking; the fall in Fulwell's position takes it out of the twenty percent of least deprived regional wards.

In 1991 there were 116,600 households in the City.  These comprised the following groups:-

• Married Couple Households made up the largest single group, representing some 55% of the overall numbers.  This group has declined in size since the 1981 Census due to the trend towards smaller and different types of households.
• The number of Lone Parent Households increased moderately to just over 7%.
• The most significant growth took place in the formation of One Person Households which accounted for about 27% of the total.  The increase in the size of this group was due to the rise in the number of single pensioners and the trend towards young adults living alone.
• Other Household types, such as cohabiting couples, single persons with elderly dependants or students sharing a house, which, at 12%, made up the balance.

Source: T&WRIU

One of the major planning effects of reducing household size is that it generates a demand for an increasing number of dwellings even though overall population might be static or even in decline.  Furthermore the changing characteristics which produce the smaller households require the housing market to respond with an increased proportion of smaller units.  Within the existing stock household size reductions could cause problems by there being too many properties overlarge for the modern household, with sub-division required to fully utilise them.  Additionally many houses are increasingly occupied by old people who might be more suitably accommodated in smaller units, releasing family dwellings onto the market.

There will be changes to the size and structure of the population and households over the period of the UDP.  Since publication of the Draft Plan, further Census information has become available, including the 1991 mid-year population estimate and subsequent projection estimates .  On the basis of recent trends, the population of the City has been projected to fall to 293,800 by 2006.  However this does not include any effects related to the policies and proposals of this Plan; consequently, if migration was reduced to zero (through enhanced employment and housing opportunities) and growth was by natural change alone then, over the Plan period, the population could rise to 308,000.

The 1991-based population projection produced by the R&I Unit largely utilises migration figures from 1987 -1991.  However, the mid 1980's was a period of high net out-migration when compared with both the early 1980's and 1990's, hence the R & I projection might be an over-estimate of out-migration - reflecting a situation which no longer pertains - and which the Plan strategy would aim to overcome.  The latest mid year estimate and projections from OPCS (mid-1993) bear this out, showing the City's population as remaining static in the region of 298,000 over the period.

Future Households

The number and composition of households are important factors in deciding the City's future housing strategy and land needs.  At both national and local level, over the next 10-15 years, it is expected that traditional 'married' couple households will decline in numbers to make up less than half the households, to a large extent being 'replaced' by the growing numbers of one person and lone parent households, the former increasing to over a third of all households.

The agreed strategy of the Plan is based on seeking reduced out migration due to enhanced employment prospects together with the provision of a sufficient quantity and range of new houses.  By these means it is hoped that the net level of out migration will have fallen to zero by the end of the Plan period.  This aim was strongly supported by the house builders and business community in their UDP Consultation responses.

Other aspects of UDP strategy aim to ensure that the social and economic needs of the disadvantaged sections of the community are taken into account in development proposals; similarly regeneration schemes will aim to stem the decline of particular areas of the City through economic, housing and social policies.

Taking into account past levels of migration related to housing and employment provision, estimates of possible future population have been made, assuming success to varying degrees in attracting employment and providing new housing.

If the strategy is successful in reducing the components of out-migration to zero at 2006, a population of about 296,500 will result comprising 291,200 people in private households and a further 5,300 “institutional” population e.g. students in halls of residence.  The latest OPCS projection, with only a 2,000 difference between this figure and the Plan's projected population, adds support to the approach adopted towards the achievement of a population of 300,000 by 2006.

The slight fall in overall population would be characterised by an increase in the number of economically active (16 - retirement age) combined with a significant decrease in the number of dependants.

Source:  T&WRIU 1996 (UDP Strategy projection)

Source:  T&WRIU 1996 (UDP Strategy projection)